Congratualtions - You made it to the next bull market
BTC Price at the time of writing - $51,400
Dear friends.
You survived one of the longest and coldest crypto winters. I hope you stayed strong and that you built on your Bitcoin knowledge and the subsequent conviction. If you have followed my advice, you must already be sitting in a healthy triple-digit % profit.
From my June 2 2021 newsletter - BTC Price $37,000
“So what next? Nobody really knows. My two cents are that I remain long term bullish, as usual. For the next 3 months, I would normally expect it to range, as I said before, mostly between 35k to 55k. After that, the market perhaps will be ready for another move up to a new ATH. If we fail to capture those levels and fall under 30k we may be in for a long winter (metaphorically and literally during 2022).
Current Buy zones:
BTC: Any price below 50k. DCA in as previously described”
From my May 11 2022 newsletter - BTC Price $30,800
“My Strategy at this point: Between 30k and 40.5K we DCA (Dollar-cost average) only BTC and some ETH (80% BTC 20%ETH). Under 30K we buy more aggressively (as much as we can afford practically and psychologically).”
From my June 14 2022 newsletter - BTC Price $22,400
“So we are in what I was always jokingly referring to as the "Sell your Kidneys to buy crypto" price point (please don't :P). This is very close to being confirmed by other technical charts such as the MVRV, the Puell Multiple and logarithmic growth curve tools
These are times to buy what you can stomach. But remember, no investment is worth losing your sleep over it. Don't put money in the markets that you can not afford to lose or money that you will need in the short to mid-term for another purpose. If you can buy and forget for a few years then keep buying. If you feel you bought the dip too many times and you are tired it's okay to stop.”
From my October 6 2022 newsletter - BTC Price $19,000
“Regardless if we go lower, we remain in the great opportunity zone. It will not matter much if you bought at 20k or 15k or 12k when it is back at 70k. And it will be back, for sure. The value of money decreases at a rate of 10% per year at best. Even if the "value proposition/adoption rate" of BTC remains the same, just because it is a deflationary asset it is going to increase in value against the dollar. And adoption and interest are increased during 2022.
I do have to remind you though that as a high-risk asset, you got to limit your exposure to be in balance with your risk appetite and the conviction/knowledge you have on the space. Don't let greed drive you. As I have explained numerous times in the past make an entry/exit plan and stick to it no matter what. Diversify your investments, and always prefer spaces you understand and trust for holding the most of your investment capital. Rebalance your portfolio every year to reflect your decided allocation percentages.
If you have an appetite for buying more in this Macroeconomic environment, keep DCAing in the market
The future is not rosy at the moment. but I believe that not being in the BTC/ETH market has a tremendous opportunity cost.”
I recognise that not everybody's circumstances are the same, and I sincerely hope you are in a good place—no need for regrets and what-ifs. The following two years will probably be very positive if you still hold Bitcoin and ethereum.
The Current Situation
ETF approval as expected - Jan 10th 2024
The predicted approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is a game-changer for the cryptocurrency world. It bridges the gap between traditional finance and the frontier of digital currency, making Bitcoin more accessible to everyone. With ETFs, people who are hesitant about diving into the complexities of buying and storing Bitcoin can now easily invest through a familiar format. This move validates Bitcoin's role in the financial world and opens the doors to a flood of new investments. It's a big step forward, signalling that Bitcoin is here to stay and grow within the mainstream financial ecosystem. However, as we celebrate this milestone, it's crucial to remember the core values of Bitcoin—decentralization and freedom from central control. As Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional markets, we must be vigilant to ensure these principles aren't lost in seeking broader acceptance. Remember “Not your keys, not your coins”
Since their launch, $5.5 billion in net inflows to BTC. Before the buzz around Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock's Climate Conscious fund was the big hit, pulling in $2.2 billion in its debut month, August 2023. Right on its heels, Deutsche Bank's USCA, another eco-focused fund, launched in April 2023 and snagged $2 billion. Even the 2004 gold ETF launch seemed modest compared to these, netting $1.2 billion in its first month.
BlackRock and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETFs broke the mould, attracting cash every day of their first month, a stark contrast to the sporadic inflows of the climate funds, which only saw action on a fraction of their trading days. This steady stream into the Bitcoin ETFs was called "unparalleled" in terms of organic growth.
ARK Invest and Bitwise's Bitcoin ETFs weren't left behind either, making it onto the list of top launches, with ARK's fund hitting over $1 billion and Bitwise reaching $857 million. This didn't include Grayscale, as it had transitioned into an ETF from an existing fund.
This makes BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF the most successful ETF launch in the history of ETFs.
Bitcoin Cycle Theory - Like a clock
As the infographic below shows, we are ticking along towards the next cycle peaks, whatever those may be. The 2023 returns exceeded the previous equivalent cycle returns (2019,2015). Will the trend continue? Very likely, 2024 will be a good year for all markets. Interest rates are unlikely to increase much from here, and government-induced market shocks are to be avoided since this year is an election year in the US. So, till 2025, nobody wants to shake voter confidence. This alone, will probably make it a good year for all kinds of investments.
Bitcoin reward Halving
The next big Bitcoin event, known as the halving, is set for April 2024. This happens when we hit 740,000 blocks, cutting the reward for miners from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per block. We can't pinpoint the exact day because mining times vary, but generally, a new block pops up every ten minutes. Bitcoin last did this dance on May 11, 2020, slicing the miner's prize in half from 12.5 to 6.25 bitcoins. This move made Bitcoin even more precious, pushing its price up from $6,877.62 about a month before the halving to $8,821 right when it happened. Despite some ups and downs, the price kept climbing, hitting $49,504 a year later on May 11, 2021.
Looking back, we see this pattern isn't new. After the 2012 and 2016 halvings, Bitcoin's price shot up, too. Even though there was a bit of a dip 12-17 months later, the price was way higher than before the halving.
If we are to follow past trends, this is the time to HODL and build our positions further.
The usual misinformation and fighting
The SEC
And the ECB
There's nothing like their narrative being dismantled in seconds by community notes and anyone willing to look at their cited sources.
Conclusion
In the unfolding narrative of Bitcoin's growth, four pivotal developments stand to shape its trajectory: anticipated rate cuts, the groundbreaking approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the forthcoming US elections, and the eagerly awaited Bitcoin halving event. Each of these factors promises to bolster Bitcoin's position in the financial ecosystem.
Anticipated rate cuts present a favourable backdrop, potentially enhancing the allure of Bitcoin as an investment. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs marks a significant milestone, simplifying access to Bitcoin for a broader audience and embedding it deeper into the fabric of traditional finance. The upcoming US elections add a layer of economic stability, with policymakers likely to avoid drastic measures that could unsettle the markets. Lastly, the Bitcoin halving event, a fundamental mechanism designed to reduce the supply of new Bitcoins, is set to occur, potentially driving up the value through scarcity.
Together, these elements herald a period of vibrant growth and expanded acceptance for Bitcoin. For those who've maintained our belief in Bitcoin through its ups and downs, this convergence of favourable conditions signals a time of opportunity and vindication.
As we navigate this promising landscape, let's continue to invest wisely, uphold the principles that make Bitcoin unique, and look forward to future rewards. Here's to the journey ahead, with Bitcoin leading towards a more inclusive and prosperous financial future.